Potentially hazardous systems for risk analysis

Identification of the most potentially hazardous systems for risk analysis

At the moment, the role of risks on production, hazardous production facilities as well as in the
global and Russian economy as a whole has increased so much that we began to identify risks as one
of the foundations of a modern approach to the analysis of industrial safety at facilities. Thus, within
the implementation of industrial projects, they cannot be ignored, because it can have a negative
impact on the effectiveness of project activities, construction and operation in general. This applies
primarily to major projects in the oil and gas industry.

Here we will consider a brief overview of the basic concepts of the traditional approach to risk
analysis, which includes the algorithm of the analysis:

  • Definition of systems for analysis;
  • Hazards identification;
  • Evaluation of the possibility;
  • Impact analysis;
  • Results of risk analysis;
  • Development of recommendations for risk reduction.

The basis of the traditional approach for risk analysis is the assessment of the variety of scenarios
that can lead to undesirable outcomes. Both the probability and the scale of such outcomes are
evaluated and reported as results.

In the process of risk analysis, a development scenario is a chain of events that can lead to an
undesirable outcome. For example, the order of events of a simplified typical scenario analysis:

  1. Depressurization;
  2. Detection;
  3. Isolation;
  4. Mitigation of impact

Depending on the nature of the process and the characteristics of the study, risk analysis may include thousands of different scenarios, such as the one above. The risk analysis assesses both the
probability and consequences of the chain of events occurring in each scenario. Probability and
impact are also assessed, but only for a carefully defined and limited number of scenarios.

At the stage of system definition, the analysis is carried out, for which the basic rules are established
and all the basic information is collected.

The basic rules of analysis are:

  1. Goals and objectives are set for effective motivation in the implementation of risk analysis.
    The following objectives can be applied: compliance with the established regulatory
    requirements, analysis of production costs or revenues, evaluation of the proposed project
    to increase capacity, etc.
  2. Necessity to measure the degree of risk is required to explain the outcomes needed to
    achieve the goal. It can be done in the system areas in order to define the physical and
    operational limits of the system. Physical areas define the set of equipment to be included in
    the study. Operational areas include system functions or operating modes.
  3. Level of detailing is the determination of the order of facilities analysis within the system.
    Such questions as ”Will each section of the pipe be modeled”; or ”Will the pipelines be grouped together for easier analysis” must be resolved at an early stage of the program.
  4. Data collection is the definition of information collected and updated. The latest drawings
    and technological schemes need to be selected. Other relevant information, including the
    weather or population info, may also be collected depending on the purpose of the study. If,
    for example, the study only refers to fire risks and the nearest housing is more than a mile
    away, there is no need to collect detailed information about the population. An example of
    typical information collected for such a risk analysis is given below.

Basic data collected for risk analysis

Information about sources of danger:

  • Material data
  • Existing results of hazard and operability studies
  • Location of ignition sources (process diagrams)

Design data and performance:

  • Dimensions of technological equipment (tanks, columns, tanks, etc.)
  • Diameters and lengths of pipelines
  • Equipment operating conditions
  • Performance of pumps and compressors
  • Design features
  • Technological processes

Auxiliary systems:

  • Gas detection
  • Detection of flames, fires
  • Detection of toxic substances, etc.

Environment data:

  • Mean wind speed
  • Maximum temperature of five days
  • Probable wind directions (wind rose), etc.

Fire protection system:

  • Control procedure
  • Substances for fire fighting
  • Consumption of the substances

Archive data:

  • Data of the pre-installation
  • Statistics of occupational injuries
  • Working hours (day-night), etc.

External data:

  • Number of people living outside the working area
  • Information about the earth within 1 to 5 km
  • Topography of the area, etc.
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